When a drone destroyed a Saudi Aramco oil facility producing 5% of the world's oil supply, shock waves were almost instantaneous. Crude oil prices jumped nearly 20% on Monday and could skyrocket, depending on market fears that the strike will recur this week, this month or this year.
In the interlocking worlds of automobiles and energy conservation, the question of whether buyers will be turning to smaller cars and / or highly fuel-efficient electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will raise questions. Transportation uses a quarter of the world's energy. Here is our analysis of how we will be affected.
In the short term, sales of large vehicles may be reduced once the news has fallen, which will happen the next two times when you fill up and gas costs about $ 2.50 per gallon (US average of all mixes, all regions combined, strike) climb above $ 3 per gallon: a 20 gallon fill is $ 60, not $ 50. Look for a lower demand from buyers for vans that are not used in the trade – you can not switch from a Ford F-350 to a Ford Ranger if you're towing a 15,000-pound backhoe – as well as big SUVs and mainstream performances. cars. High end cars will be less affected (at least if the buyer still has a job and a year-end bonus). That a 2019 GTC4Lusso Ferrari reaches 13 mpg (and requires superior gasoline) is unimportant when you pay $ 250,000 and drive up to 2,500 km per year at most.
Sales will come back unless oil shocks occur. Over time, Americans are incorporating higher energy and fuel costs into their budgets, unless gas costs $ 4 per gallon and the same fuel reaches $ 80. In the short term, at least until the end of the year, this is the perfect time to buy the full-size SUV or pickup of your dreams, while dealer lots are inundated with large vehicles and factories can generate incentives of more than $ 5,000.
The prices of gasoline will increase, quickly. They will eventually retreat unless there is another price shock (new oilfield attacks, oil tanker attacks, pipeline attacks). President Trump on Monday ordered the release of oil from the US strategic oil reserve to fill the Saudi deficit. It has also accelerated agency approvals for Texas and other pipelines currently at the licensing stage. Environmentalists and (especially) Democrats will oppose this, as they see this as a final solution to longstanding procedural safeguards, which is in some respects the case.
A cynic and perhaps a realist will notice that oil prices are falling more slowly than they are skyrocketing. You may notice that your car rental agency is offering an "energy tax" for a bus or shuttle bus, which was probably set in 2012 when gasoline (the average price in the US, in current prices) was over $ 4 a gallon, the highest fuel price in US history, and it has never disappeared.
According to AAA's calculations, the average price of gasoline in the United States at the beginning of the week, one day after the Saudi Aramco attacks, was $ 2.56 per gallon. This is an insignificant figure for a particular motorist, as fuel prices depend on state taxes and, in some states (such as California), special formulations to reduce volatility and gasoline vapor formation. Summer formulas contain 1.7 times more energy than winter, but they cost more.
The average gallon of gasoline, says the Institute of Energy Research, At 52 cents per gallon of federal, state, and local taxes, while diesel has an average tax burden of 60 cents per gallon. The national government charges 18.4 cents a gallon of gasoline and 24.4 cents a gallon of diesel. The average tax on gasoline is 23 cents a gallon. Alaska, Virginia, Missouri, Mississippi, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana cost about 15 to 20 cents a gallon, while New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Washington State and Pennsylvania are at 41-58 cents. Gallon
Over the past 30 years, the United States has experienced the most dramatic gas price changes since they began tracking consumption and gasoline prices around 1920. The late eighties 90 was the cheapest period to buy gasoline, the price falling to 1 dollar a gallon in some areas. United States in 1998; this equates to $ 1.55 at current prices. Over the last decade, prices have ranged – in 2017 dollars – from $ 2.20 to 1 gallon to $ 4 to 1 gallon. There were two historical peaks of $ 4 per gallon in 2012 ($ 3.85 at the time) and $ 3.80 per gallon in 2008 ($ 3.65 at the time). Due to recent fluctuations, rising from a dollar to a gallon to $ 4 per gallon in 15 years, drivers over the age of 30 are referring to recent history and conclude that what goes up must go down and vice versa. Whatever the case may be, all of this is cheap compared to most countries in the world.
Expect more efficient car requests from some political circles. The reality: there will be requests but probably little action. The opposite may happen: President Trump wants to cancel, through an executive action, the longstanding agreement that California can set its own higher standards for emissions. Lower emissions generally mean lower fuel consumption and vice versa. Carbon dioxide emissions are directly related to the amount of fuel consumed by a car, and CO2 is a cause of greenhouse gases that, according to the vast majority of scientists, causes global warming, which, according to them, is real.
Trump's plans to unilaterally rescind California's exemption may not be subject to review by the court. Legislation that would increase (not relax) fuel economy standards could be passed by the House (controlled by the Democrats), but not by the Senate (controlled by the Republicans). If she did, the President could veto her. It will become an election issue, probably designed to protect the environmental future of our children, not to preserve America's security, strength and energy independence.
Representatives from manufacturing states such as Michigan and New South (Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi) would like the tax credits for electric vehicles to be expanded from 200,000 to 600,000. Tesla and GM have already reached the milestone. Nissan will arrive in a few years, then Ford. This too faces uncertain prospects. The majority of electric and hybrid vehicles enjoying tax credit are sold in dozens of democratically prone states. Only Pennsylvania among these states voted for Trump in 2016.
The Frankfurt Motor Show last week has been the subject of many announcements of electric vehicles, but car manufacturers worry in particular about the fact that car buyers in European markets do not are not fully convinced that electric vehicles are their future in the short term. Europe is better suited to electric vehicles than in the United States because its population, which is larger than that of the United States, is more evenly distributed geographically. There would therefore be fewer public charging stations needed for long-distance but rarely used trips. Europe is also more comfortable with the onslaught of Saudi oil fields as they rely more on foreign oil from less stable countries. Europe is also more dependent on other countries, including Russia, for natural gas.
Most of America's most recent successes in finding new sources of energy within its borders involve fracking. Hydraulic fracking, as Big Oil calls it, most people have mixed feelings about fracking. Pumping chemicals – or liquids, or aqueous solutions, depending on the preferences of the oil industry – into rock formations until they abandon their oil and natural gas costs more. expensive than pumping oil into underground reservoirs in western Texas or in the currently hot sands of Saudi Arabia. . This forces more (mostly) Americans to work in the energy sector, as well as in the oil territories of Canada. Mainly because of the production / fracturing of shale oil, the United States produces more oil this year than anyone else with 18% of world oil production, with Saudi Arabia at 12% and Russia at 11%.
The upcoming price shock will encourage some Americans to adopt smaller, more efficient vehicles. Energy consumption, pollution and climate change could be a bigger problem in the 2020 elections and should prove to be an important division between Republicans and Democrats. This will probably benefit the Democrats more.
Initially, it was unclear what was the delivery mechanism that caused 10 to 17 separate strikes at the Saudi Aramco plant in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, and two on the nearby Khurais oilfield on Saturday. The government and intelligence sources first said that it was drones launched, but unspecified, that it was a military drone in long-range or short-range civil / commercial drone; some sources have indicated cruise missiles.
Large commercial / civil drones equipped with battery-powered electric motors can carry 10 to 20 kg, which can be an explosive and convenient force. According to reports reaching Tuesday, the weapons platforms were military-type UAVs (and a cruise missile may be called a variant of a drone). But the frightening prospect remains that of armed drones that disrupt a sporting event, an outdoor concert, a parade or a fair. In the 1977 film Black Sunday (made the year when Tom Brady was born), an airship loaded with explosives attacks the Super Bowl. (It's a fiction, not a documentary.) A drone could recreate the terror of Black Sunday for $ 25,000 or less.
The result is that governments around the world can think about how drones should roam freely. They can restrict flights to more areas or require more licenses, including drones capable of lifting more than 5 to 10 pounds. It's at the same time that UAVs are doing more useful things, such as search and rescue, geological mapping and helicopter replacement for information gathering (for the price of a few hours of flying). Helicopter, you can own a drone that runs an 8K video). In other words, the government's desire to suppress what preoccupies it could endanger the interest of individuals and businesses in using drones to make their products and services more useful and affordable. Not to mention these hypothetical deliveries Amazon.
Top image credit: Getty Images
This is the Mercedes Simplex Vision, a new concept of the German manufacturer that takes the vehicle design Mercedes Simplex and reinvents it with an elegant and futuristic touch. The car was exhibited at Mercedes' new design center in Nice, France on Saturday. Cnet reported.
Gorden Wagener, head of design for Mercedes-Benz, posed next to the new car, which gives us a nice idea of the scale.
The two-seater takes everything we expect with the new car concepts and throws it out the window. While many other industries often pay tribute to older classic designs or try to recreate them entirely, the auto industry rarely looks at its roots.
The Vision Mercedes Simplex offers independent wheels, open seats resembling a sofa and a steering wheel to the ground. There are a lot of design decisions here that have not really been seen since the beginning of the 20th century.
The Simplex name comes from Mercedes' line of Mercedes-Benz Simplex luxury cars from 1902 to 1909, and the design parallels are evident when you take a look at one of those classic touring cars that have helped to redefine the automobile.
There are of course big differences, including the electronic display at the front of the Mercedes Simplex Vision, where the grill was previously.
As a concept car, the Mercedes Simplex Vision can get away with a handful of exclusions, such as headlights and basic safety features, which give it an extremely elegant appearance.
Does it roll? Maybe But you would not really want to take this thing on the street.
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Too bad the world's largest motor show is only held every two years. The Frankfurt Motor Show 2019 – IAA, or International Automobil-Ausstellung (International Auto Show) to locals – focused on the future on the laser. In particular, the total electrification and stages: hybrid, hybrid 48 volts, rechargeable hybrids.
What is the size of the Frankfurt auto show? It's twice CES. Frankfurt Messe includes 12 buildings and 400,000 square meters of exhibition space, or 4.3 million square feet, or 75 football fields and end areas. The Las Vegas Convention Center, which has been expanded again, now offers up to 2 million square feet of exhibition space. Here is our point of view on the most important vehicles of this show.
Yes, there are many electrified cars in the slideshow. Just because we are Tesla-Rivian-Leaf-Bolt robots who love electric vehicles. It's because that's where the world, or not in the United States, goes: to electrified vehicles that are 2 or 3 times more energy efficient than gasoline or diesel in an engine with combustion.
Volkswagen, for example, has announced that its latest internal combustion engine design will be coming out around 2026. That does not mean that Vee-Dub is fully electric by 2027. That means instead that VW will drive in the future with engines to existing combustion, and refinements, but not new engines. Recall that GM released half a century of the small block of the Chevrolet V8 engine, 1954-2003.
Tesla has made incredible progress in selling electric sedans and sports cars. The company will launch its first hatchback next year. However, the next major Tesla vehicle will be harder to sell. The company had to show its next truck this summer, but now it must looking at a November reveal as soon as possible.
Tesla launched its first electric vehicles in 2008, but things did not accelerate before the release of the Model S in 2012. Although the Model S is not a budget offer, it was the first electric vehicle to offer solid performance and a reasonable price. tag that consumers could justify in significant numbers. The launch of Model 3 in 2017 meant that Tesla was about to be accepted by the majority – it was even subject to the government's tax credit allocation.
CEO Elon Musk has long teased the company's 100% electric van You're here even showed an early concept when he revealed the Tesla a while ago. The vehicle, seen above, has a sci-fi vibe. This seems to be the most significant change from the "traditional" vehicle designs of all that Tesla has yet made. The final design could however be entirely different.
Musk is an unusual CEO in many ways. He's talking about funding deals that never happen, going on podcasts to smoke marijuana, and always, always offers unrealistic delays. That said, Tesla and SpaceX regularly keep their promises. They just do not do it as quickly as Musk's exuberance makes us think. In the case of the Tesla pickup, Musk now says November is the new target.
About a minute later, we broadcast a photo of Tesla's cyberpunk truck pic.twitter.com/hLsGsdyuGA
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 16, 2019
Unfortunately, that's all the information that Musk is ready to provide at the moment, and that's an answer on Twitter. When you think about it, it's another thing that makes Elon Musk a not-so-typical CEO; he loves to announce the latest news on his products on Twitter. In a previous teaser (yes, on Twitter), Musk said the van would have a "cyberpunk" vibe. In an interview last year, he said that the design "stops (his) heart".
Whenever the Tesla pickup truck could have cardiac effects, the company is running out of time to keep its promises. Ford plans to launch an electric version of its industry-leading F-150 pickup. This vehicle could reach dealerships as early as 2021. While Tesla will likely start making pickup reservations as soon as it's announced, it will probably take at least a few months before any of them are delivered.
The proposed extension of the $ 7,500 electric vehicle tax credit has become another polarization issue, both for tax conservatives ("boondoggles … do not need it") and for the Liberals. and advocates for the environment ("an important tool for slowing climate change"). Tesla and General Motors, which have already reached the milestone. GM is still in the phase-down phase, with a maximum credit of one-quarter, or $ 1,875, for six months beginning next month. Nissan will probably reach the milestone in 2-3 years. Ford and Toyota could get there by 2025.
A proposal in Congress would increase the tax credit of 400,000 additional vehicles per manufacturer for a total of 600,000 vehicles. The maximum tax credit would be $ 7,000, not $ 7,500, and it would continue to apply to pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, but not to battery-powered hybrid vehicles.
Tax credits for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have been available since 2010. Tesla, by far the largest electric vehicle vendor in the United States, has exceeded its tax credit allowance ceiling, and General Motors is gradually reducing its tax credits over the next 12 years. monthly elimination period. (See below for more details.)
In April, Senators Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Gary Peters (D-MI) and Susan Collins (R-ME), as well as Congressman Dan Kildee (D-MI) , introduced the Driving America Forward Act, which would extend the phasing out of the federal electric vehicle tax credit. The legislation, if enacted, could include cars purchased between the phasing out phases for Tesla and GM. Or not. Or it could be a partial credit because people are unlikely to get a tax credit. (But legislation that does not provide for interim period credits would reduce EV sales close to zero in the months prior to its adoption.)
Proponents argue that tax credits help buyers turn to cleaner electrified vehicles during the time when battery technology is still expensive. They note that the government subsidizes other forms of transportation to reduce energy consumption, such as buses and commuter trains. There are subsidies for rebates on homes, heaters, appliances and even efficient light bulbs. (Some LED bulbs, after handing over the energy company, cost little more than a dollar a light bulb.)
While critics accuse President Obama, the tax credit was passed by the George W. Bush administration in the 2008 Energy Improvement and Extension Act.
"It's hard to imagine a more blatant revenue transfer for the haves," said a 3 Wall Street Journal, adding, "Washington has been buying electric vehicles for almost 30 years." Critics of tax credits for Electric vehicles include people who say the government should not be shaping purchasing decisions. Others – less every year – say that climate change / global warming is a hoax. The enemies got a boost this week with a Wall Street Journal editorial manager, "Subsidize my electric car, please,"It has been argued that tax credits primarily benefit the rich and that market forces should decide the fate of electric vehicles." In addition, Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) sent a letter to GOP Senators. asking them not to extend the electric vehicle tax credit.
Pro-EV said the WSJ editorial asserted that "Washington has been subscribing to electric vehicles for nearly 30 years" and claimed that it was "a blatant revenue transfer." for the haves (electric vehicles that have) a starting price of about $ 36,000. The facts are disappointing. Federal authorities have been doing energy research (several types) for decades, but the first EV / PHEV credits were not until 2010. The average vehicle in 2018 was selling for about $ 38,000 (by Kelly Blue Book), options included. In addition, while four out of five electric vehicles are sold to people with family incomes over $ 100,000 (in 2016), many were more expensive Teslas, such as the S and X models. EVs are leases for which it is difficult to determine income.
A more valuable piece of information would be to know the income of consumer electric vehicle buyers such as the Nissan Leaf, the Volkswagen e-Golf, the Chevrolet Bolt EV and the Hyundai Kona Electric.
If the legislation is passed – and is not currently under fast track – sponsors could accept a reduced or no tax credit for expensive electric vehicles. If someone buys or rents a Porsche Taycan EV – at the starting price of $ 152,000 – it can be said that he is not part of the US employee group. The legislation also faces uncertain chances of being signed by the president. EV credits mostly go to blue states like California, for example, in West Virginia (the reddest state of the 2016 election). For proponents of tax credits, the long game may be waiting to see what vote the nation will have in 2020. If the Senate, the House and the President become all Democrats, the chances of the tax credit being restored are more high. Winning arguments could focus on issues related to climate change and support for new technologies.
For 2019, however, debate # 1 on automotive and climate change addresses the degree of control exercised by California and a dozen other states on setting their own rules in pollution. For decades, California, because of its unique pollution problems, especially in the Los Angeles Basin, had the choice of either complying with federal air pollution regulations or establishing its own rules. Thirteen other states have chosen to apply the California emission rules: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.
In July, four automakers reached an agreement with California to adopt stricter rules on exhaust emissions. This effectively overshadowed President Trump's goal of lowering standards.
The tax credit for an electric vehicle has several rules. They are not difficult to understand once you understand that it is a tax credit that you owe otherwise. This is not a check, and it is not always $ 7,500. To qualify for a tax credit:
Play, Tesla. The Porsche Taycan EV sedan unveiled on Wednesday (4 September) before the Frankfurt Motor Show is a vehicle of superlatives, a slender low sedan with speed, maneuverability and most importantly, the name of Porsche. That will still cost half the price of a Tesla Model S Performance model, an advantage for first-time buyers who have deep pockets that want to brag, and later a challenge because there is a limit to the number of extremely expensive cars that the market can absorb.
According to the trio of global ads – in China, Europe and Niagara Falls, Ontario – the Taycan Turbo will cost $ 152,250 in the US (including shipping costs), while the Taycan Turbo S will cost $ 186,350. $ with a special introductory pricing, after which they will increase by $ 2,410 and $ 2,610 more. The "turbo" part of the name is misleading (the Taycans are only electric vehicles), but why not: there is already enough BS in the high-end electric vehicles. What's more between friends?
The Porsche Taycan 2020 is derived from the concept car called Mission E which was unveiled at the Frankfurt Motor Show in 2015. The E-now-Taycan Mission is Porsche's first electric car, with the exception of a couple of a century old. In silhouette, it looks a lot like the Porsche Panamera sedan.
The Taycan is an all-wheel drive vehicle with one engine for the front axle and a second for the rear axle. The Taycan uses an 800-volt electrical architecture with the ability to charge very quickly at the appropriate charging points. It's the same electrical architecture as the Audi e-Tron GT. According to Porsche, it takes only 22.5 minutes for the battery to go from 5 to 80% with a fast DC charger producing 270 kW in ideal conditions. (Tesla says it takes 20 minutes to charge at 50%, using a 150 kW compressor.) Charging times can be reduced if the home owner sets the start time in his phone application and that the battery will be heated or cooled, depending on the ambient conditions. , before loading. Taycans to the United States will receive a free recharge (the first 30 minutes) for three years via Electrify America.
Inside, you'll find a 16.8-inch LCD dashboard, a stacked central LCD screen smaller than Tesla's and an optional passenger-oriented LCD for entertainment. It can not be seen by the driver. Like the Panamera, the center console is full of gauges and switches and extends almost to the back seat.
The Taycan and Model S are both mid-size sedans with two rows of seats and four doors. Many dimensions are similar: 195.4 inches long (Porsche) compared to 195.7 inches (Tesla Model S), and a width of about 77 inches for both. But Tesla is clearly workshop, 56.9 inches against 54.3 inches, with a longer wheelbase (116.5 inches vs. 114.2 inches) for a smoother ride. Tesla also has more space in the trunk, 28.4 cubic feet combined at the front and back, versus 16.8 cubic feet. If you go on vacation, both are competitive – if you, as the owner of Porsche, use FedEx the second day for your golf clubs.
For the highest points in the range, the Taycan Turbo S battery is 93.4 kWh, the Tesla Model S battery is 100 kWh. Both batteries are under the ground. Porsche is projecting 265 miles of autonomy using the WLTP (Harmonized Worldwide Test Procedure for Light Duty Vehicles) methodology compared to 365 miles for Tesla. (The WLTP figures are about 10% more optimistic than those in the EPA.) Car and driver estimates 260-270 miles for the Turbo and 225-250 for the Turbo S.
Porsche rates the Taycan at 617 hp (751 hp for a 2.5 second overshoot acceleration), while Tesla is around 760 hp. Porsche claims 3.0-3.5 seconds from 0 to 60 mph for the Turbo and less than 3 seconds for the Turbo S, both against 2.4 for the Tesla S Performance model. Porsche's top speed is 162 mph (260 km / h); Tesla is 161 years old.
Porsche has the largest LCD screen for the dashboard, Tesla's largest screen center console and Porsche has an optional LCD for entertainment and passenger control. Tesla is equipped with a semi-autonomous (level 2) autopilot.
One difference is modernity: the interior of the Tesla Model S seems dated. It has been around since 2012 with continual improvements and is still the same basic car.
From the perspective of the United States, the idea of climate change can still be questioned – at least in some minds. Thus, the comparatively lower interest on electrified vehicles here. Long distances across the United States are currently better suited for remote driving a combustion engine: From Stuttgart, Porsche city, to Moscow, the distance in kilometers (2,400) is less than that of Silicon Valley to Manhattan in miles (3,000). But the world's automakers are convinced that they must electrify, which means more electric vehicles and more charging points each year. And they also know that nothing can be as powerful as a motor vehicle.
Last autumn, Volkswagen announced that its next generation of combustion engines, scheduled for 2026, would be its latest new combustion engines ever. (With modifications, this could still be in two decades.) Porsche is part of Volkswagen.
As Taycan's price is high, it is already said (among analysts and journalists) that Porsche could make a rear-wheel drive model only to bring the price below $ 100,000. For some, this would be the ideal commuter car because it would qualify for a VMO sticker.
Tesla has legitimized the electric vehicle market. Porsche adds an honored nameplate. The interest in high-performance electric vehicles could grow the market and help builders already equipped with superb vehicles that have not yet attracted public attention, particularly Jaguar I-Pace. With the arrival on the Porsche market with Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW can not be far behind.